Trump victory to cause uncertainty on both sides of Atlantic

Monika Slowikowska, director of Golden Houses Developments, considers Donald Trump’s suitability for high office and how his election victory could affect UK construction projects.

I recently voiced my opinion that neither candidate standing for the US presidency would satisfy the US public.

I believed that whoever won would cause tension with the opposition and worsen the problems in the property market, which fell by 9% in September alone.

And now, with the result in and the dust starting to settle, I haven’t changed my mind.

True, Donald Trump is a very good businessman, so he’ll be very keen to prove that he can succeed in his new job. He has achieved results all his life and has proved resilient when it comes to getting things done.

On the other hand, he’s very anti-establishment. If he acts in politics as he has business, his instinct will be to do things his way. With no experience in politics or any form of public service at any level, he may upset many people, which won’t help his cause.

His bullish style doesn’t really lend itself to politics, which is often about winning consensus and finding common ground. With this in mind, I think he could get burned by the US political system. The bureaucratic machine will frustrate him and, having watched his behaviour in the election campaign, I expect the aggression with which he’ll try to force change will see him clash frequently with politicians in both major parties.

Trump is a builder, so I sense his idea of legacy is to leave something tangible, such as his wall on the US/Mexican border. You can destroy your predecessor’s legacy by overturning his executive orders, but you can’t so easily demolish a structure like this once it’s up. Trump believes this wall is a good idea and I expect him to be keen to see it through to completion.

He has also promised to invest heavily in infrastructure. This would bring many needed new jobs, but I understand funds available for these sorts of project are limited. Furthermore, in any large organisation (and they don’t get much larger than the US government), processes are long, slow and arduous.

As someone who has spent his career so far running his own business and getting his own way, Trump is not used to waiting or dealing with the volume of red tape that public infrastructure projects entail. He’ll be restless.

For the rest of the world, and the UK in particular, the outlook is uncertain. The US, in the eyes of many investors, will be less attractive due to uncertainty in the coming months. If long-term investments in the country are put on hold, this could be good for Britain, especially if our parliament votes to reverse the Brexit decision.

On the other hand, funding behind many commercial developments in the UK is linked to the US, so if the country enters a period of turmoil, it will affect these projects. This may be an indirect connection, but it’s important in terms of influence and willingness in the market.

We live in interesting times.

Daniel Raustadt/Dreamstime.com