The CITB’s latest annual Construction Skills Network (CSN) report released today predicts that the construction industry will expand by 2.9% year-on-year in 2015-19, a level of growth that will create 200,000 additional job roles and require 44,690 people a year to enter the industry to keep up with demand.
This projected Annual Recruitment Requirement (ARR) sharply revises upward last year’s ARR, which was calculated at 36,400 new entrants a year, or 182,000 in the period 2014-18.
But the figures coincide with the publication of two sets of figures showing the industry is still failing to draw in young entrants.
The latest figures from UCAS on student entrants onto undergraduate degree courses in 2014 reveal that just 2,550 people were accepted onto building-related degrees this year – a figure almost unchanged from last year’s 2,510 and drastically lower than the pre-crash level, when 4,370 people enrolled on building degrees in 2008.
And the latest figures on apprenticeship completion rates in construction show the damage done by the recession: in 2013-14 just 8,030 completed their training in “construction, planning and the built environment”, down 11% from the 9,060 recorded in 2012-13 and 36% from 12,600 apprenticeship completions in 2011-12.
Gillian Econopouly, head of policy and research at CITB, said that along with encouraging new people into the industry through university education and apprentices, “appealing to people who have left the industry” will be key to fulfilling the jobs created in construction.
“Around 100,000 people left the industry during the downturn, we are looking at how to get them back into the industry,” she said.
Number of new recruits required annually 2015-2019
According to the CITB’s CSN report a “resurgence of growth in the regions and nations is driving a strong construction comeback”. The CITB predicts the appearance of an “economic power base” in the north of England, with the north west set to grow by 2.5%, the north east by 2.3%, and Yorkshire and Humber by 2.3% annually, over the forecast period.
Wales is predicted to experience almost 6% year-on-year growth over the next five years with 5,320 jobs expected to be created in the country, many connected to the nuclear industry.
Private housing and commercial sectors are set to lead the recovery, with both expected to grow at a rate of 4.6% over the forecast period.
Total construction employment is projected to reach 2.74 million in 2019, although this level is still slightly below the all-time peak level in 2008 of 2.86 million.
All 28 occupational categories in the CSN survey are expected to experience employment growth over the five years to 2019 – in other words, despite the trends towards offsite, 3D printing and automated construction, the CSN report does not predict that any professions will enter a decline in the next five years.
Econopouly explained that the results of the report, which has been published every year since 2005, were based on demand on a regional scale, and they were “as confident as we can be” that the predictions are accurate.
Annual UK average construction output growth 2015-2019
Demand is projected to be strongest for construction trades supervisors (2.9% a year on average), while architects and surveyors (both 2.3% a year on average) lead in terms of demand for professional occupations,. For trades, leading the way are plant operatives (2.1%) and bricklayers and building envelope specialists (both 2%). Demand is also expected to be strong for logistics personnel (2.2%).
But the category of “construction project managers” sees a slightly reduced ARR compared to last year, with 310 additional roles created in 2015-19, compared to a prediction of 400 made for the 2014-18 period.
Steve Radley, CITB’s director of policy and strategic planning, said: “Employers will need to pull every lever available to them to meet the skills challenge they face, but government can play a vital role in giving them the confidence to invest in training for the long-term.
“CITB is already identifying future skills needs and working with government and industry on the talent pipeline. But to help it plan ahead, industry needs a clear commitment from all political parties in the run up to the General Election that infrastructure projects will be delivered on time and to plan in the next Parliament.
“Government can also help employers to develop the next generation of workers by sending out a clear signal that it will make it as simple as possible for companies of all sizes to invest in apprenticeships.”
