Construction Manager has compiled 10 predictions from the coming year from contributions by NBS, GVA, the BCIS and Tuffin Ferraby Taylor.
1. Housing policy updates
The impact of the UK government’s Housing Standards Review will become apparent with a formalised position for adoption and implementation expected to be unveiled towards the end of the year. This may see space standards implemented through local planning policy and development control. Meanwhile, the Code for Sustainable Homes will be superseded with many of its requirements being incorporated into the Building Regulations.
This year we can also expect final guidance for zero carbon homes to be issued; policy statement on local planning authorities’ role in implementing a national space standard; improved accessibility and water efficiency standards; and further developments in the Right to Build policy supporting custom and self-build housing
2. BIM Level 2 mandate for 2016
BIM, and readiness for the 2016, will be a focus for all contractors intending to work on the billions pounds of government-funded projects that will be covered by the Level 2 mandate. Find out if the industry is ready here.
Development of the BIM Toolkit continues with the BIM Academy providing tools, built on buildingSMART technologies, which will allow teams to view designs against requirements. The next phase of research and development work will be looking at linking tasks and objects to project team responsibilities, and ensuring it is presented in a user-friendly fantastic website.
3. Emerging technologies
- Drones are becoming popular in a number of arenas including film and television, but could equally have numerous applications in the construction process, particularly in difficult locations. Don’t be surprised if you see more drones zipping around construction sites in 2015.
- 3D printing continues to make large leaps in scale, with prototype buildings already tested. In 2013 we predicted that commercial manufacturing of 3D printed houses could two years away. Will this prediction come true?
- “Haptics”, or touch technology. From screens on tablets to robotic fingers, it has great potential for applications in the construction industry – although at present it is still largely in development via the gaming industry.
Will 3D printed houses become a commercial reality this year?
4. Cutting-edge materials
Meta-materials have the potential to allow leaps in construction material technology, offering enhanced mechanical, electromagnetic and acoustic properties. Other materials at the cutting edge of technology include nanostructures, phase change materials (PCMs) and photovoltaic paint. Advances in 3D printing should facilitate the commercial applications of these technologies.
5. Oil and commodity prices
The impact of the reduction in oil prices should make energy, transport and material production costs cheaper overall. Material prices rises in 2014 were tempered by the fall in commodity prices, which are at their lowest level since 2009. This is a result of spare capacity in world markets, slowing Chinese demand and a strengthening of the US dollar. Oil, iron ore and metal prices have all fallen sharply in recent months. Forecasts suggest that commodity prices, such as iron ore and copper, will fall further over the next six months before they start to increase again.
6. General election
No forecast for the year ahead would be complete without considering the UK political situation. If the Conservatives do not end up back in power everything may be up for review. However, past experience would suggest that it is very rare for a new incoming government to undo the policies implemented by their predecessors, unless they have particularly compelling reasons for doing so. So do not expect the BIM mandate to be abandoned.
7. Office-to-resi reversal
David Mann, partner at property and construction consultancy Tuffin Ferraby Taylor, believes that the reduced supply of office properties following the volume of office-to-resi conversions over recent years is likely to see developers switch back to developing commercial, rather than residential, in central locations. London’s commercial construction market is expected to remain buoyant, but development activity will continue to spread to the south east outside London and prime areas in the UK’s regional cities such as Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff.
8. Tender price rises
According to BCIS, 2015 will see strong tender price growth of 6.7%, followed by another year of growth at 4.7%, as contractors begin to adjust to increasing workloads. BCIS also forecasts tender price inflation – made up of materials costs, labour costs and general building costs – to run at 4% in 2016 and 5.4% in 2017. Labour costs, which it says rose by 2.9% in 2014, are headed for similar 3% increase in 2015.
9. Selective tendering spreads
According to property consultant GVA, consultants are increasingly busy and selective on projects and certain tendering opportunities are being turned down because of workloads. Companies are cautious about re-investing in staff to adjust to an uncertain new level of workload.
Some contractors who took on a large amount of work during the downturn are now struggling with increased costs and narrower profit margins. With new work there is less risk and increased reward to contractors.
Tenders for large schemes are also more competitive with more interest than smaller schemes or those with onerous tendering conditions. Location in the UK, availability of labour and ease of getting materials to site will all contribute to the attractiveness of the tendering opportunity. Contractors will still accept risk transfer on a design and build basis outside London, but we doubt this will be the case in six months.
10. Updates to standards
- BS 65004:2014 Guidance on Organisational Resilience, covers issues including flooding, health estate, climate change and critical infrastructure resilience.
- Forthcoming PAS 1192-5 Specification for security-minded building information management, digital built environments and smart asset management.
- Revised BS 8536 FM Facility Management Briefing – code of practice.
- Revised BS 5534:2014 which supersedes the current BS 5534:2003, which will be withdrawn on 28 February 2015. Major changes include the need for mechanical fixings with mortar fixed ridges, hips etc; amended calculation procedures to take account of climate change (in particular wind uplift) and alignment with the Eurocode; a new requirement for wind uplift resistance for underlays and the need for these products to display wind zone performance.
